▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

As Bitcoin (BTC) defended the $70,000 level and demonstrated the resilience of digital assets, a stock market expert forecast a volatile market where short-term strength in March could coexist with a sharp downturn later this year.

In an interview with CNBC on March 11 (local time), Fundstrat’s Tom Lee projected that markets could continue rising through late March, potentially lifting the S&P 500 to 7,300 points within the year. The co-founder and chief strategist cited the significant unwinding of speculative excess in software, big tech, and cryptocurrency markets as a basis for his bullish outlook. However, Lee also presented a base-case scenario in which the market faces a full-fledged downturn of around 20% at some point this year.

An unconventional analysis also suggested that rising oil prices could serve as a positive factor for U.S. equities. As a net oil exporter, the United States stands to benefit from higher crude prices, and in periods when growth is scarce globally, investors tend to rotate into U.S. growth stocks. Lee stated, “While other countries struggle under the impact of higher oil prices, the U.S. will maintain a relative growth advantage, accelerating capital inflows.”

Among technology stocks, the software sector is believed to have already passed its bottom. The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the software ETF (IGV) has declined to around 16 times, entering an attractively undervalued range. Lee added, “As valuation multiples in the underperforming software sector normalize, companies with solid business models are now positioned to outperform the broader market.”

Bitcoin has recently improved its fundamentals through a large-scale leverage liquidation process, reinforcing its position as a store of value. Lee assessed that the crypto market experienced its largest deleveraging event since last October, clearing out a substantial portion of speculative players. Bitcoin maintained the $70,000 level despite rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions, once again drawing investors’ attention.

With much of the froth removed from the crypto market, Bitcoin has reentered favor and resumed its role as digital gold. There had been concerns that if markets reached a threshold where they no longer responded to positive news, a broader macro downturn could follow. However, Bitcoin continued trading above $70,000, restoring market confidence.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from its use. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.

​