▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP / ChatGPT-generated image ©

As geopolitical tensions escalate in the Middle East and international oil prices surge, the cryptocurrency market is struggling to find a clear direction, treading on thin ice. Market leader Bitcoin (BTC) is precariously holding above the $70,000 level, drawing attention as a potential hedge amid war fears, while major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and XRP (Ripple) are facing clear downward pressure due to declining open interest and weak institutional demand.

According to investment-focused outlet FXStreet on March 12 (local time), despite the Middle East conflict entering its 13th day amid ongoing U.S. offensives toward Iran, cryptocurrency prices have not collapsed, suggesting that investors view Bitcoin as a defensive asset against geopolitical crises. Drones believed to be backed by Iran attacked vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil prices soaring from $76 intraday to above $90. Despite such macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin continues to hold at $70,000, though further gains are limited by resistance at the February 8 high of $72,271 and the 50-day exponential moving average at $72,929.

An examination of Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) positioned above the signal line, indicating a cautious bullish bias. However, the fading green histogram suggests slowing bullish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 51, signaling neutrality and hinting at a continued range-bound market rather than a decisive breakout. With the price still trading below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, the broader trend remains bearish. If the primary support at $68,300 breaks, there is a persistent risk of a decline toward $66,000—where buying interest recently re-emerged—and further down to the lower boundary of the consolidation range at $64,000.

Ethereum is trading above $2,000 but remains capped below the $2,150 resistance level due to macroeconomic uncertainty and subdued retail demand. According to CoinGlass data, Ethereum futures open interest shrank from 15.33 million contracts in July to 13.36 million contracts on Thursday. The continued decline in open interest clearly reflects traders’ waning confidence in Ethereum’s ability to sustain upward momentum. The current price remains below key exponential moving averages clustered between $2,218 and $2,867, failing to break out of the broader downtrend.

For Ethereum to stage a short-term rebound, it must secure a daily close above the recent peak of $2,150 and the supply zone near the 50-day exponential moving average at $2,219. Failure to do so could trigger a سلس سلسلة of declines starting from the recent reaction low of $1,940, extending to $1,860 and $1,820. Meanwhile, XRP has also posted declines for two consecutive days as institutional interest cools significantly. According to SoSoValue data, there were no inflows into spot XRP ETFs on Wednesday, and despite cumulative inflows of $1.21 billion and assets under management totaling $986 million, overall investor sentiment is rapidly fading.

Currently trading around $1.38, XRP faces strong resistance from the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages positioned between $1.52 and $1.98. The daily RSI stands at 45, below the neutral 50 level, indicating that a bullish reversal remains delayed. While the MACD is above the signal line, suggesting a modest rebound attempt by buyers, it still remains below the neutral line, acting as a barrier to a full-fledged rally. Traders should monitor this week’s opening price of $1.34 as a key support level and the weekly high of $1.44 as a critical resistance level while watching for the next directional move.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.

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