▲ Bitcoin (BTC), U.S. Dollar (USD)

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a break above $74,000, fueling market optimism, but on-chain indicators warn that the shadow of the bear market has not yet fully disappeared.

According to Cointelegraph on March 14 (local time), Bitcoin is attempting to surpass $74,000—near its all-time high—raising investor expectations. However, key on-chain data such as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXO) signal that the current price surge could be a temporary rebound. Market experts advise investors not to be swayed by short-term price volatility and to closely examine broader cycle indicators.

For Bitcoin to break through the psychological resistance level of $74,000, sustained capital inflows are required beyond a simple resolution of supply-demand imbalances. Analysis from Santiment indicates a slight increase in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, heightening potential selling pressure. In particular, signs that whale investors are taking partial profits at current price levels have raised concerns that upward momentum could weaken.

The open interest reaching an all-time high is also cited as a factor increasing market volatility. A surge in high-leverage positions on major exchanges such as Binance has created a precarious environment where even small price movements could trigger large-scale liquidations. Investors should pay close attention to the possibility of a chain reaction of short squeeze liquidations if the $72,000 support level breaks down.

The macroeconomic environment is not entirely favorable for Bitcoin either. With the Federal Reserve maintaining its high interest rate stance and concerns over a global economic slowdown persisting, risk appetite could contract at any time. For Bitcoin to prove its value as digital gold, it is essential to maintain its current price range stably and break through technical resistance levels to establish a firm foothold.

The virtual asset market stands at a critical crossroads, with expectations of setting a new monthly high clashing against pessimism over a prolonged bear market. Attempts to break above $74,000 are likely to continue, but it may take more time to fully clear the remnants of the downturn indicated by data. Market participants need to monitor real-time indicators closely and respond with caution.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and does not assume responsibility for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*

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